--- title: "The Brexit Referendum" year: 2016 country: "United Kingdom" canonical: "https://recap.at/2016/brexit-referendum" slug: "brexit-referendum" recapType: "global_event" startDate: "2016-06-23" endDate: "2016-06-24" --- # The Brexit Referendum > A single-question ballot, a 1.3-million-vote margin, and the start of the UK's exit from the bloc that defined its postwar economy On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted 51.89% to 48.11% to leave the European Union. The result triggered the resignation of the prime minister who called it, four years of withdrawal negotiations, the formal exit on January 31, 2020, and a continuing argument inside the UK about what it was actually for. ## Summary On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held its second referendum on European membership in 41 years. The first, in 1975, had endorsed staying by 67%. The second produced the opposite answer by a 3.78-point margin: 17,410,742 votes to leave, 16,141,241 to remain. Turnout was 72.21% - the highest in any UK vote since 1992. David Cameron, the Conservative prime minister who had promised the referendum in his 2015 election manifesto to settle internal party fights about Europe, had campaigned for Remain. He resigned at 08:18 the next morning. Boris Johnson - who had announced for Leave four months earlier in a Daily Telegraph column, having reportedly written two columns and chosen the more politically rewarding one - had been expected to succeed him; he withdrew within a week after Michael Gove turned on him. Theresa May, who had supported Remain quietly, became Prime Minister on July 13. 'Brexit means Brexit,' she said. The vote split along recognizable fault lines. Northern Ireland (55.8%) and Scotland (62%) voted Remain decisively. England (53.4% Leave) and Wales (52.5% Leave) carried the result. London (59.9% Remain) and the major university cities voted Remain; the post-industrial Midlands and North voted Leave. Younger voters favored Remain by roughly 2-to-1; voters over 65 favored Leave by roughly 2-to-1. Turnout in safer-Remain seats was lower than in marginal-Leave seats. The Leave campaign rested on three claims: that EU membership cost the UK £350 million a week (a figure the UK Statistics Authority called 'misleading' before, during, and after the vote), that immigration was uncontrolled, and that the UK could 'take back control' of its laws and borders. The Remain campaign - 'Britain Stronger in Europe' - leaned on Treasury and IMF forecasts of post-exit GDP losses. The Office of National Statistics later estimated GDP was about 5% lower by 2024 than it would have been on the central forecast trajectory had the UK remained. The withdrawal process took 1,317 days from the vote to the formal exit. May's deal was rejected by Parliament three times. Johnson succeeded her in July 2019, renegotiated the Withdrawal Agreement, called a snap election on December 12, won an 80-seat majority on a 'Get Brexit Done' platform, and signed the deal into law on January 23, 2020. The UK left the EU at 23:00 GMT on January 31, 2020. The transition period ended December 31, 2020. The full economic and political consequences continue to play out. ## Key facts - **Question**: Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU? - **Date**: Thursday, June 23, 2016 - **Result**: Leave 51.89% · Remain 48.11% - **Leave votes**: 17,410,742 - **Remain votes**: 16,141,241 - **Margin**: 1,269,501 votes (3.78 pts) - **Turnout**: 72.21% (33,577,342 ballots) - **England**: 53.4% Leave - **Scotland**: 62% Remain - **Wales**: 52.5% Leave - **Northern Ireland**: 55.8% Remain - **Formal UK exit**: 23:00 GMT, January 31, 2020 ## Timeline - **2013-01-23** - Cameron promises an in/out referendum Bloomberg speech: Cameron pledges to renegotiate EU membership and put the result to a referendum if the Conservatives win the next election. - **2015-05-07** - Conservatives win majority on the referendum pledge General election delivers Cameron a 12-seat overall majority. The referendum becomes inevitable. - **2016-02-20** - Cameron announces the referendum date Negotiated 'new settlement' with the EU; sets the referendum for June 23. - **2016-02-21** - Boris Johnson declares for Leave Then Mayor of London. His Telegraph column reportedly existed in two versions; he chose Leave the day before he announced. - **2016-06-16** - Jo Cox murdered Labour MP for Batley and Spen, a Remain campaigner, is shot and stabbed by a far-right attacker shouting 'Britain first.' Campaign paused 3 days. - **2016-06-23** - Polls close at 22:00 BST Nigel Farage initially concedes around 22:30 based on private polling. Results from Sunderland (61% Leave) hit at 00:17 - the Leave surge becomes visible. - **2016-06-24** - Result announced 07:20 BST. Chief Counting Officer Jenny Watson confirms Leave on 51.89%. The pound falls 8% against the dollar before sterling markets open. - **2016-06-24** - Cameron resigns 08:18 BST. From the Number 10 podium. 'The British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path.' - **2016-07-13** - Theresa May becomes Prime Minister After Boris Johnson withdraws (June 30) and Andrea Leadsom drops out (July 11), May is the only candidate. - **2017-03-29** - Article 50 triggered May invokes Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union by letter to Donald Tusk. The two-year withdrawal clock starts. - **2019-07-24** - Boris Johnson becomes PM After May resigns when her Withdrawal Agreement is rejected three times by Parliament. - **2019-12-12** - Snap election - 'Get Brexit Done' Conservatives win an 80-seat majority. Labour loses the 'Red Wall' Leave-voting seats it had held for decades. - **2020-01-31** - UK leaves the EU 23:00 GMT. The UK becomes the first member state ever to leave the European Union. Transition period runs through December 31, 2020. ## Relationships - **echoed**: september-11-attacks - Both events are pivot points where the Anglo-American post-Cold-War consensus broke. 9/11 ended the unipolar moment externally; Brexit broke its internal political coalition in the UK. - **caused by**: wright-brothers-first-flight - Timeline of "The Brexit Referendum" references "Wright Brothers' First Flight" (2 shared tokens incl. title anchor). - **caused by**: july-revolution-france-1830 - Timeline of "The Brexit Referendum" references "July Revolution in France" (3 shared tokens incl. title anchor). - **caused by**: korean-war-armistice - Timeline of "The Brexit Referendum" references "Korean War Armistice Agreement" (2 shared tokens incl. title anchor). ## Consequences - **2016 - Cameron resigns; Theresa May becomes PM**: Cameron resigns within hours. May, a quiet Remainer, becomes PM on July 13. 'Brexit means Brexit.' - **2017 - Article 50 triggered**: March 29, 2017. Two-year withdrawal clock starts. The UK's negotiating position turns out to be weaker than expected. - **2019 - Withdrawal Agreement reached, rejected, reached again**: May's deal rejected three times by Parliament. May resigns. Johnson renegotiates the Northern Ireland Protocol; his deal passes after the December 2019 election. - **2020 - UK formally leaves the EU**: January 31, 2020, 23:00 GMT. First country ever to leave. Transition period runs through December 31, 2020. - **2021 - Northern Ireland Protocol becomes a chronic crisis**: Customs checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland fuel ongoing unionist anger. The Windsor Framework (2023) modifies but does not resolve the underlying problem. - **2021 - EU citizens' UK residence rights**: Settled Status scheme grants residence to ~6 million EU citizens. Free movement ends; UK adopts a points-based immigration system. - **2023 - Scotland renews push for independence**: UK Supreme Court rules in November 2022 that the Scottish Parliament cannot unilaterally call a referendum. The political question remains live. ## Then vs now - **UK GDP (relative to OECD pre-vote forecast)**: 2016: On trend (June 2016) → 2024: ≈5% below the pre-vote forecast trend - OBR + ONS estimates, mid-range of published academic studies. - **GBP/USD**: 2016: 1.488 (close, June 23, 2016) → 2024: ≈1.27 (2024 avg) - Sterling fell 8% in the 24 hours after the vote and has not recovered the pre-vote level. - **Net annual migration to the UK**: 2016: 335,000 (2016) → 2023: 685,000 (2023) - EU migration fell sharply; non-EU migration more than offset it. - **UK MEPs in European Parliament**: 2016: 73 → 2024: 0 (UK left Jan 31, 2020) - **Northern Ireland's status**: 2016: Full EU member via UK; soft border with the Republic of Ireland → 2024: In the EU single market for goods (Windsor Framework); checks on UK→NI trade ## Media coverage - **The Sun** (2016-06-24): [WE'RE OUT!](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1335161/the-suns-brexit-front-page-the-day-britain-voted-to-leave-the-eu/) > Britain has voted to quit the European Union after a bitter four-month battle. Millions of voters defied dire economic warnings to register a stunning protest against the political establishment. - **The Guardian** (2016-06-24): [Britain voted for Brexit - and the rest of us are reeling. What now?](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/britain-votes-leave-eu-david-cameron) > Britain has voted to leave the European Union in a stunning rebuke to the establishment and a result that has thrown global financial markets into turmoil. David Cameron has resigned. - **The New York Times** (2016-06-24): ['Brexit' in Britain Could Be First Cracks of E.U. Breakup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html) > Britain voted on Thursday to leave the European Union, a result that turned the political and economic order on the Continent upside down and amounted to the most stark rejection yet of the European project. - **Bild** (2016-06-24): [Die Briten gehen - Europa erschüttert](https://www.bild.de/) > Die Briten haben entschieden: Sie verlassen die EU. Damit beginnt eine Zeit der Unsicherheit für ganz Europa. Die Märkte reagieren panisch, die Politik steht unter Schock. - **Le Monde** (2016-06-24): [Le Royaume-Uni vote en faveur du Brexit](https://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2016/06/24/le-royaume-uni-vote-en-faveur-du-brexit_4956997_3214.html) > Le scrutin britannique du 23 juin marque une rupture historique dans le projet européen. C'est la première fois depuis la signature du traité de Rome qu'un État membre choisit de partir. ## Voices - **10 Downing Street podium** (official, grieving) - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister > I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months - but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. - **Westminster Hall, 04:00 BST result-night address** (official, celebratory) - Nigel Farage, UKIP leader > Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom. This will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people, for real people. - **Edinburgh, Bute House** (official, predictive) - Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland > Scotland sees its future as part of the EU. We are determined to act decisively to protect Scotland's place in Europe. A second independence referendum must now be on the table. - **Brussels, European Commission** (official, dismissive) - Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission > Out is out. The British voted for Brexit. They have to live with the consequences. We are not going to enter into any kind of secret negotiation. - **Vote Leave campaign HQ** (official, dismissive) - Michael Gove, Justice Secretary > I think the people of this country have had enough of experts from organizations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong. - **Daily Telegraph column, February 22, 2016** (official, skeptical) - Boris Johnson, MP and Mayor of London > The more the EU does, the less room there is for national decision-making. Sometimes these EU rules sound simply ludicrous, like the rule that you can't recycle a teabag, or that children under eight cannot blow up balloons. - **Birstall, West Yorkshire** (consumer, grieving) - Brendan Cox, widower of MP Jo Cox > Jo would have wanted two things above all else to happen now: one is that our precious children are bathed in love, and two is that we all unite to fight against the hatred that killed her. - **Sunderland count, 00:17 BST** (media, predictive) - David Dimbleby, BBC News > Sunderland - Leave: 61 percent. Now if that is a pattern, this is going to be a much closer race than anybody thought. ## Impact Brexit removed the UK from the single market and customs union it had helped design over forty-seven years. The 2016 question - 'Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?' - produced a binary answer; the implementation produced four years of negotiation, a constitutional crisis, two new prime ministers, and a still-unresolved Northern Ireland question. Economic effects estimated by the OBR + most academic studies in the range of −4% to −6% of GDP by 2024. The political effects - the realignment of the Conservative coalition around Leave voters, the collapse of Labour's Red Wall, the renewed momentum for Scottish independence - are still unfolding. ## Sources - [2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) - Wikipedia - [Q19614301 - 2016 UK EU membership referendum](https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q19614301) - Wikidata - [Official EU referendum results - UK Electoral Commission archive]() - Electoral Commission - [Briefing paper: EU Referendum 2016 - analysis of results (CBP 7639)]() - House of Commons Library - [Brexit - Library of Congress collection]() - Library of Congress - [Brexit - media files]() - Wikimedia Commons - [BBC News election-night coverage, June 23–24, 2016]() - Internet Archive - [Vote Leave campaign site (captured June 22, 2016)]() - Wayback Machine - [Britain Stronger in Europe (Remain) site (captured June 22, 2016)]() - Wayback Machine - [Global event coverage stream - referendum week]() - GDELT - [All Out War: The Full Story of Brexit - Tim Shipman (2016)](https://openlibrary.org/works/OL19783040W/All_Out_War) - Open Library - [HN discussion threads - Brexit, June 23–25, 2016 (Algolia)](https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=custom&dateStart=1466640000&dateEnd=1466985600&query=brexit&sort=byPopularity&type=story) - Hacker News --- Canonical: https://recap.at/2016/brexit-referendum